Recession Indicators: Music and Pop Culture
With the U.S. economy shaken up, many Americans are wondering if a recession is on the horizon. While economist define what the indicators of a recession are, music and culture are the indicators of how people feel about the state of the country.
A recession is defined by two consecutive quarters of negative growth in gross domestic product. In the first quarter of 2025, the U.S saw a negative GDP for the first time since 2022. It is possible that the country may avoid a recession if the economy recovers quickly, but many investment banking companies like Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan are forecasting a 40-60% chance of a recession this year.
With this economic uncertainty many Americans are putting off pulling the trigger on major life events like buying a home, getting married, and having children. A Harris poll published by The Guardian, revealed that 66% of participants have been hesitant making a large purchase and 65% are holding out on upgrading their living situation.
The economists have spoken, but so has pop culture. In 2007, when the U.S was faced with an economic decline, “Recession Pop” emerged to offer people an escape from the stress. This high-energy music made people dance, with lyrics celebrating youthfulness and partying.
Lady Gaga, Kesha, Miley Cyrus, and many more captivated the radio waves with hits like “Poker Face” and “Party in the U.S.A.” The recession pop era began in 2007 and arguably lasted until 2015, forever impacting the music industry. Pop sensations like The Black Eyed Peas released “I Gotta Feeling” and “Boom Boom Pow,” which rocked the clubs and car radios for years. Katy Perry became a pop icon, releasing two breakout albums, One of the Boys and Teenage Dream, and topping the charts for months. Pitbull had everyone singing about partying after a long week at work and struggling to pay rent with hits like “Time of Our Lives” and “DJ Got Us Fallin’ in Love” with Usher.
Fashion shifted to accommodate the economic downturn as well. With secondhand clothes and thrifted finds becoming the trend. A focus could be seen on layering and accessorizing with belts, cheap jewelry, and funky shoes. A shift towards business casual fashion was also popular during the 2000s. An emphasis on practical clothing and the middle class bled into many aspects of popular culture.
Is Recession Culture Back?
The recession pop era was characterized by the release of hit after hit, and we are seeing that again with the return of Millennial pop icons. Earlier this year, Lady Gaga released her newest album, Mayhem, which features the infamous dance pop, 2000s throwback vibe. Katy Perry is bringing back all of her hits that carried us through the recession for a Lifetimes Tour. World-renowned DJ and producer Calvin Harris, who is known for his high-energy dance beats, released a new song, “Blessings,” that fits perfectly into the recession pop sound.
Miley Cyrus is reemerging with her 9th studio album, Something Beautiful, that is set to be released May 30, 2025. New Zealand-born pop singer Lorde caught the end of the recession pop era with her first hit in 2013, “Royals,” and is now returning with a new album, Virgin.
This shift in popular culture is not limited to music. The return of low-rise jeans, capri pants, and secondhand quirky clothes is a big indicator of a return to the 2010s fashion trends. Layered tank tops and cropped basic t-shirts were popular then and now. Basic cuts, colors, and fabrics have become popular in stores as people look to purchase quality clothing they can use for multiple events. Additionally, Gen Z is wearing business casual outfits out to the bars and the clubs like millennials did in the early 2000s.
What does this mean?
While the economic future of the nation is up in the air and there is not much that we can personally do, we can enjoy the return of the 2000s culture that gave us a chance to sing and dance our worries away. Fashion trends are ever-changing, but understanding where they are coming from is a great way to make the most of them.